Will oil start a new rally?油價將啟動新一輪漲勢?
作者:管理員    發布于:2019-02-08 11:46:59    文字:【】【】【
石油輸出國組織(OPEC)去年12月實行的減產行動效果顯著,目前國際油價已從去年12月24日的低點上漲近27%。 The organisation of the petroleum exporting countries' (OPEC) production cuts in December have had a dramatic effect, with international oil prices up nearly 27 per cent from their December 24 low. 但美國原油產量一直居高不下令投資者并不看好油價前景。 But persistently high U.S. crude production has made investors less bullish on the oil outlook.此前美國貝克休斯能源服務公司在周報內提及,在2018年底美國原油產量達到創紀錄的1190萬桶/日后,今年美國鉆井平臺有望繼續增加,原油產量可能會出現進一步提升,而油價或再遭打壓。 After hitting a record 11.9 million barrels per day at the end of 2018, U.S. RIGS are expected to keep adding oil this year, with further gains likely and oil prices likely to come under pressure, baker hughes energy services said in its weekly report. 不過,今年5月特朗普將決定是否繼續對8個國家和地區給予購買伊朗原油的豁免,若特朗普說“不”,伊朗原油出口將進一步下滑,油價則可能會啟動新一輪漲勢。 However, in May, Mr Trump will decide whether to continue granting waivers to eight countries and regions to buy Iranian crude, and if he says "no", Iranian crude exports will fall further and oil prices could start a new round of gains. 投資者撤離 Investors pull out 自去年10月國際原油價格開始跳水后,投資者不斷撤離追蹤能源行業的大型ETF。 Investors have been pulling out of large etfs that track the energy sector since international crude oil prices began diving in October.數據顯示,管理著134億美元資金的能源精選行業ETF(代碼:XLE)上周遭投資者贖回近6.32億美元,創下自2017年7月以來的最大單周資金流出。 The energy select sector ETF (code: XLE), which manages $13.4bn, saw nearly $632m in investor redemptions last week, the biggest weekly outflow since July 2017, according to data.有分析認為,投資者紛紛撤離能源ETF,主要是不看好未來的油價。 Some analysts believe that investors have fled the energy ETF, is not optimistic about the future of oil prices.除了因為美國不斷創紀錄的石油供應量外,還有一個關鍵問題是需求增長。 In addition to record oil supplies in the us, another key issue is growing demand.過去兩年石油消費量一直在穩步增長,但近3個月因為出現經濟放緩的憂慮,工廠制造業活動頻頻出現疲軟跡象,原油需求增長開始下滑。 Oil consumption has been rising steadily for the past two years, but in the past three months, worries about an economic slowdown and signs of weakness in factory manufacturing have led to a slowdown in demand growth.  獨立研究機構美國財務研究分析中心(CFRA)ETF研究主管洛森布羅斯(Todd Rosenbluth)說:“XLE的上漲基本依賴于油價復蘇,2019年美國原油過量的供應會給油價帶來下行壓力,投資者此時最好的選擇就是撤離XLE。 Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF research at CFRA, an independent research group, said: "the XLE rally is largely dependent on a recovery in oil prices, and the best bet for investors is to get out of the XLE at a time when excessive U.S. crude supply will put downward pressure on prices."不過,XLE可能會受到大型能源公司財報的提振,如果像埃克森美孚和雪佛龍這樣的巨頭業績表現超預期,XLE的跌勢可能會止住。” However, XLE is likely to be boosted by earnings from big energy companies, and if the likes of exxonmobil and chevron beat estimates, its decline could be halted. 目前國際油價受到多方因素綜合影響,上躥下跳已成常態。 At present, international oil price is affected by many factors, and it has become normal to jump up and down.一方面,OPEC在減產; On the one hand, OPEC is cutting production;另一方面,美國在擴大產能,增加出口。 On the other hand, the United States is expanding capacity and increasing exports.特朗普政府本周還宣布對委內瑞拉的原油出口實施制裁。 The trump administration also announced sanctions this week on Venezuelan crude oil exports.連同伊朗,特朗普已讓兩大產油國的原油出口受到抑制。 Along with Iran, Mr Trump has curbed crude exports from the two largest producers.有業內人士稱,接下來特朗普很可能需要面臨一個抉擇:要么繼續與OPEC+國家的減產計劃對抗,要么接受逐步高升的油價。 Mr Trump is likely to face a choice between continuing to fight OPEC+ countries' production cuts or accepting a gradual increase in oil prices, according to industry sources. 受制裁影響,伊朗的每日原油出貨量已下降了130萬桶,而委內瑞拉的原油出貨量也受到影響。 Iran's shipments have fallen by 1.3m barrels a day as a result of the sanctions, while venezuela's have also been affected.美國國家安全顧問博爾頓(John Bolton)在推文中暗示:“如果美國進一步對伊朗和委內瑞拉實施制裁,完全扼殺他們的原油出口,全球原油的供應會下降得更顯著。” John Bolton, the us national security adviser, suggested in a tweet: "if the us imposes further sanctions on Iran and venezuela and completely strangle their crude exports, global crude supplies will fall even more dramatically." 去年12月,OPEC開始減產后,布倫特原油花了一個月的時間從50美元的低點大幅反彈至現在的62美元/桶,WTI原油亦從42美元/桶的低點回升至54美元/桶的水平。 It took a month for brent to rebound sharply from a low of $50 to $62 a barrel in December, when OPEC began cutting production, and for WTI to recover from a low of $42 to $54. 增產填缺口? Increasing production to fill the gap? 還有另一件值得投資者擔心的事,今年5月,特朗普將決定是否繼續對8個國家和地區給予臨時豁免,允許他們繼續向伊朗購買原油。 Another concern for investors is that in May, Mr Trump will decide whether to continue granting temporary exemptions to eight countries and regions that allow them to continue buying crude oil from Iran.如果這份豁免權無法延長,伊朗的原油出貨量將會進一步下滑,油價可能會啟動新一輪漲勢。 If the exemption is not extended, Iranian crude shipments will fall further and prices could start rising again. 針對這個潛在的問題,美國財政部長姆努欽早早就想好了對策,他特別強調,當特朗普打算完全對伊朗和委內瑞拉原油進行封鎖時,美國的中東盟友,特別是沙特阿拉伯將會恢復和提高原油產量,彌補伊朗、委內瑞拉兩國因制裁帶來的產量缺口。 For this potential problem, America's Treasury secretary, Mr Qin early countermeasures you ready, he emphasized, when going to completely trump to blockade on Iran and venezuela oil, America's Allies in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia will resume and improve oil production, for both Iran and venezuela production shortfall due to sanctions. 但沙特及其盟友是否愿意終止目前的減產計劃,回到低油價時代? But will Saudi Arabia and its Allies be willing to end current production cuts and return to the era of low oil prices?而且就算沙特等同意增產,他們是否可以將產量提到足夠高,并維持在一個穩定的水平,來彌補伊朗和委內瑞拉的產出? And even if Saudi Arabia and others agree to increase production, can they raise it high enough and keep it at a stable level to compensate for Iranian and Venezuelan output?據國際能源署(International Energy Agency)數據,沙特每天的原油備用產能約為140萬桶,按照這個水平,沙特很難在短期內填補長期的供應缺口。 Saudi Arabia has about 1.4 million barrels a day of spare crude capacity, according to the International Energy Agency, making it difficult for the kingdom to fill long-term supply gaps in the short term.PVM石油公司分析師史蒂芬(Stephen Brennock)認為:“簡單來說,美國無法在扼殺委內瑞拉和伊朗原油供應的同時抑制油價飆升。” "Simply put, the U.S. can't choke off the supply of Venezuelan and Iranian crude while curbing the price spike," said Stephen Brennock, an oil analyst at PVM. Tortoise Capital在其2019年的石油市場展望報告中表示:“預計2019年WTI原油價格將在每桶50~60美元之間,而布倫特原油價格將在60~70美元/桶之間。 Tortoise Capital says in its 2019 oil market outlook: "WTI is expected to trade between $50 and $60 per barrel in 2019, while brent is expected to trade between $60 and $70 per barrel.對油價產生支撐的一個很重要的原因是,沙特及其產油盟國不愿意接受50美元以下的的低油價。 A big reason for support is the reluctance of Saudi Arabia and its oil-producing Allies to accept prices below $50.隨著OPEC+去年減產措施的實施,沙特可能會考慮在接下里的原油會議中提出進一步減產的可能性。” "With the implementation of OPEC+ 's production cuts last year, Saudi Arabia may consider raising the possibility of further cuts at the next crude meeting.來源:上海海靡閥門廠 Source: Shanghai haimi valve factory